I’ve been glued to Al Jazeera for the last several hours and monitoring Twitter hashtags #egypt and #jan25 for breaking news about the ongoing protests in Egypt. While things are developing quickly, it’s not looking good for President Mubarak, who has ruled Egypt with an iron fist for the last 30 years.
Tens or hundreds of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets across Egypt today. The exact numbers aren’t clear yet. There were open clashes with the police earlier in the day. Footage showed many throwing stones at the security forces. Several people have been killed, including at least a couple police officers, and hundreds of civilians are reportedly injured. The headquarters for the ruling party is currently in flames, and the police appear to now have retreated from many places. Despite these obvious signs of violence, I don’t think anyone will argue that violence on the part of the protesters was the deciding factor if Mubarak does end up falling. If anything, it has likely only led to increased violence and slowed progress towards a collapse of the regime.
The response to the military, which is now out on the streets, has been quite different. There has been a lot of footage showing the tanks being greeted by cheering protesters. Chris Hayes, The Nation‘s Washington editor, tweeted that a friend in Alexandria wrote that, “Protesters are assembling to greet the army with flowers.” One Al Jazeera reporter said that on at least one occasion soldiers got out of their tanks to shake hands with demonstrators who surrounded them.
There are also signs of defections among the police. The AP reported that “several of the policemen stripped off their uniforms and badges and joined the demonstrators.” And the beautiful picture above was just tweeted by Christine Estima, showing one Egyptian woman kissing a riot police officer.
While the military has not cracked down, it is still not clear whether they will ultimately side with the people. If they do, it could very well be one of the decisive factors in whether the regime survives. Another key factor will be what happens tomorrow. Do the protesters have a plan regarding how to escalate if Mubarak doesn’t step down? If Egyptians hope to have more success than the Green Movement in Iran, they must be prepared to use other tactics, like perhaps a general strike, if the protests don’t produce the changes the people are demanding.
Meanwhile, Mubarak was supposed to give a public speech earlier in the day, but he has yet to be seen. And the US appears to be sitting on the fence, waiting to see what happens. As White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs repeatedly said in response to questions at a press briefing just minutes ago, they are “monitoring a very fluid situation.”
It’s really quite sad. The US has backed the Egyptian government with extensive military aid for decades. If the Obama administration wanted to support the protesters, and in turn real democracy in the Arab world, President Obama could play a decisive role by stating clearly that Mubarak should step down and that US aid to Egypt will be cut off until he does. Instead, Vice President Biden denied that he is a dictator last night on PBS, in essence, choosing to back him until the bitter end – which appears to be rapidly approaching.
UPDATE: President Mubarak finally gave a speech. He said that he was aware of the socio-economic problems that everyday Egyptians face and would be taking measures to address them, including asking the government to resign. He said he would appoint a new government tomorrow and that he supported the freedom of expression, but not the “chaos,” looting and arson of today. (If the protesters would have maintained greater nonviolent discipline, he wouldn’t have been able to make these arguments.)
Analysts and commentators at Al Jazeera are arguing that Mubarak’s speech is unlikely to appease the protesters, who immediately took to the streets chanting, “Down, Down with Mubarak!” following the speech. And again it’s hard to imagine a speech like this being made if the US would have been more direct in cutting aid and telling the Egyptian leader to step down. Now we will have to wait and watch to see what the Egyptian people decide to do next.
What a beautiful picture. This is the picture of how real “regime change” will happen — not by shock and awe but by a kiss.
And how can a man who has banned free speech for 30 years now say he supports it? Mubarak should be glad to know his people have outgrown him.
Shock and awe works too. 🙂
Too bad Islamic nutjobs assassinated Sadat. I have respect for him.
“Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution.”
Actually shock and awe doesn’t work, unless you want many years of war and the deaths of tens or hundreds of thousands.
And I don’t know that he’ll stay. I don’t think the Egyptians will be satisfied by the moves he proposed. They say they want him to step down and won’t stop until he does. The question is whether they will be able to keep the pressure on and step up the resistance, like I said, by using more aggressive nonviolent tactics, in the days and weeks ahead.
He’ll stay, for now.
His new “cabinet” will include some reform minded folks.
The US will gently push him to step down in the near future.
With luck, there will be a secular successor. If it’s revolution and we get an Arabian Iran, God help us.
Love your last paragraph before the update. Great piece. Hopefully the protests continue, even increase in number and fervor, so Mubarak is forced to make more concessions, and the US is unable to prevent Mubarak’s inevitable fall. If that happens, Israel will be scrambling, along with the US, to put someone in place who will abide by the peace agreement with Israel and will agree to continue the siege on Gaza.
Excellent post Eric and great coverage in general folks. Biden’s statement was an embarrassment to all of us. Obama’s speech was better. Indeed, it was about as strongly supportive of the people of Egypt as could be reasonably expected from a head of state, given that he “has to” at least partly hedge his bets in the event Mubarak manages to hold on. The fact that he directly told Mubarak “you can’t meet your people’s needs with violence” was important.
Another note, and a reason why this site is so important. Both on CNN and even so called liberal media outlets online, the reports and some of the commentators have often been prone to refer to all of this as “spontaneous” “violent” and sowing “chaos.” While there have no doubt been elements of this, this is obviously false as a generalization. Clearly many people have been laying the ground work for this for many years and the spontaneity has been guided and coached and modeled by people who know what their doing. The materials from our friends at the Albert Einstein Institution have been being put to very good use.
I want to add a few observations to the original post. I have been watching coverage on and off all day and into the morning and I have heard a number of things which suggest that there is widespread organizing to use nonviolent techniques:
1. A report on CNN from Alexandria recounted that people in the crowds were shouting things that expressed sympathy for the security forces — saying things that emphasized that the members of the police are “our family members.” As a few people threw stones at the security forces, others pleaded with them to act peacefully and with restraint.
2. The hailing of the arrival of the army. While many commentators are discussing the particular historic role of the army in Egypt, the technique of using flowers to welcome the army, which is being reported in multiple places, is something that is specifically called for in manuals guiding nonviolent movements. This reaching out to the army is perhaps the most important and difficult step in nonviolent revolutions: the moment when the arms of the state literally go over to the people and the means of state violence are overwhelmed by true, extant power.
3. The sites targeted by protestors. This is something of a mixed bag, because many places have been set on fire, something that nonviolent techniques would warn against because property destruction gives license to the regime to respond with violence. However, it is clear that this is not random looting but that very specific places are being occupied or destroyed: the police headquarters, which are the nerve center of Mubarak’s repressive apparatus and the ruling party headquarters. Conspicuously NOT attacked are places of significance to the government of Egypt as an institution. It will be interesting to see if the protestors take the next step recommended by the manuals and occupy government buildings peacefully.
Thanks so much, Dustin. These are great points!